Will Mirra Andreeva win set 2 in the Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
14 contracts
Top contract
68¢
$0 · Kalshi
Bracket families
10 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Taylor Townsend win set
Will Taylor Townsend win set 2 in the Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca Sramkova match: Taylor Townsend
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOWSRA-2-TOW
Will Taylor Townsend win set 1 in the Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca Sramkova match: Taylor Townsend
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOWSRA-1-TOW
Cluster 2
Will Rebecca Sramkova win set
Will Rebecca Sramkova win set 2 in the Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca Sramkova match: Rebecca Sramkova
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOWSRA-2-SRA
Will Rebecca Sramkova win set 1 in the Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca Sramkova match: Rebecca Sramkova
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOWSRA-1-SRA
Cluster 3
Will Ajla Tomljanovic win set
Will Ajla Tomljanovic win set 2 in the Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Lombardini match: Ajla Tomljanovic
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOMLOM-2-TOM
Will Ajla Tomljanovic win set 1 in the Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Lombardini match: Ajla Tomljanovic
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOMLOM-1-TOM
Cluster 4
Will Marta Lombardini win set
Will Marta Lombardini win set 2 in the Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Lombardini match: Marta Lombardini
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOMLOM-2-LOM
Will Marta Lombardini win set 1 in the Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Lombardini match: Marta Lombardini
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TOMLOM-1-LOM
Cluster 5
Will Renata Zarazua win set 1 in the Renata Zarazua vs Federica Urgesi match: Renata Zarazua
Cluster 6
Will Federica Urgesi win set 1 in the Renata Zarazua vs Federica Urgesi match: Federica Urgesi
Cluster 7
Will Hanne Vandewinkel win set 1 in the Hanne Vandewinkel vs Jil Teichmann match: Hanne Vandewinkel
Cluster 8
Will Jil Teichmann win set 1 in the Hanne Vandewinkel vs Jil Teichmann match: Jil Teichmann
Cluster 9
Will Lilli Tagger win set 1 in the Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens match: Lilli Tagger
Will Lilli Tagger win set 1 in the Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens match: Lilli Tagger
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TAGLAM-1-TAG
Cluster 10
Will Suzan Lamens win set 1 in the Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens match: Suzan Lamens
Will Suzan Lamens win set 1 in the Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens match: Suzan Lamens
KXWTASETWINNER-26MAY04TAGLAM-1-LAM
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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