Trump Iran End-of-Operations Declaration Crashes -13¢ to 33¢ — Conflict Drags On

The 'Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30' contract (0xfa59099fbda1e0f005) is today's biggest Trump-related market mover, crashing -13¢ to 33¢ on $133k volume. This is significant because it diverges from the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire surge to 94¢ — traders are separating the Lebanon diplomatic track from the broader US-Iran military posture.

The May 31 declaration contract (0x57c1e8de9d359a7605) is at 76¢ (-1¢) and the June 30 contract (0xc84dfa2ab4a808d1b9) is at 82¢ (-2¢), suggesting the consensus has shifted from 'April announcement' to 'late Q2 announcement' at best.

The 'Trump out as President by April 30' market (0x24f38479176af2d71f) remains at 1¢ on $222k volume — high volume at near-zero prices often signals institutional hedging. The 'Trump out before 2027' contract (0x48b0b0bca515f68fcc) is at 17¢.

Cabinet departure markets are also active: 'Lori Chavez-DeRemer next to leave' (KXCABOUT-26APR-LCDR) is at 59¢ and 'Pete Hegseth next to leave' (KXCABOUT-26APR-PHEG) is at 19¢. Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by June 30 (0x269b4de59b444c57f1) is at 22¢.

For traders: The -13¢ crash in the April 30 declaration contract combined with the 33¢ current price suggests there's still meaningful probability left to trade. If geopolitical developments accelerate — nuclear deal progress or ceasefire holding — this 33¢ could recover sharply. The June 30 declaration at 82¢ looks more reliable as a long.