Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 12 articles.
How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Live Data
What Is Going On in the World Right Now — April 2026
Iran at 67%, Ukraine ceasefire at 30%, Taiwan at 10%, Democrats eyeing Senate flip. What 9,706 prediction market contracts are telling us about the state of the world.
US-Iran War and Oil: What Prediction Markets Are Actually Pricing
The Hormuz Strait is disrupted, oil is elevated, and prediction markets are placing real money on what happens next. Here is what the orderbooks actually say — and where they might be wrong.
Cuba Regime 2026: Post-Castro Era Prediction Markets and the Risk of Sudden Change
Diaz-Canel’s Cuba is in its worst peacetime crisis since 1959—yet markets still mostly price in regime continuity through 2026. This deep-dive explains the macro, political, migration, and geopolitical drivers prediction traders must track to spot mispriced Cuban tail risk.
Latin America’s Leftist Governments to 2026: Pink Tide Scenarios and Prediction Market Edges
How the second pink tide could crest or collapse by 2026 — with deep dives on Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina, plus US election scenarios and concrete trade ideas for prediction market traders.
US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock
Prediction markets are quietly handicapping the odds of a new sanctions squeeze on Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil in 2026. This deep-dive maps the legal regimes, enforcement patterns, shadow fleets, and global oil balances behind those prices—and shows where traders may be mispricing the risk.
Venezuela’s Humanitarian Crisis by 2026: Migration, Refugees, and the Signals from Prediction Markets
How an 8‑million‑plus exodus is reshaping Latin America, US immigration politics, and remittance‑driven stabilization—and what prediction markets are pricing in (and missing) about Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis in 2026.
Venezuela Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, and 2026 Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Really Pricing In
How prediction markets are pricing the Venezuela opposition’s chances, María Corina Machado’s strategy, and regime‑change risk through 2026—plus the signals that will move odds next.
Maduro, Venezuela 2026: Regime Stability, Prediction Markets, and the Political Crisis
Prediction markets badly mispriced Venezuela’s 2026 shock—but the Chavista regime survived Maduro’s capture. This outline maps the odds, drivers, and scenarios analysts should track when writing about Venezuela’s regime stability through 2026.
How Prediction Markets Are Pricing 2025 Political Risk: China Leadership, Russia‑Ukraine Ceasefire, and Jerome Powell’s Fed
China leadership 2025, Russia‑Ukraine ceasefire 2025, and Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair form a three‑pillar test of global stability. Using prediction markets and historical base rates, we show how traders are pricing each risk, why the implied odds of a “stable 2025” are low, and what that means for macro portfolios.
Russia War Strategic Roadmap 2025: Scenarios, Constraints, and Market Signals
How far can Moscow push its war in 2025? This roadmap unpacks Russia’s military objectives, economic resilience, foreign support, and occupation plans—and translates them into concrete scenarios and signals for prediction-market traders.
Ukraine War Strategic Roadmap 2025: Scenarios, Odds, and Trading the Next Phase of the Conflict
Prediction markets are rapidly repricing the Ukraine war as a long positional struggle rather than a short, decisive campaign. This roadmap breaks down the 2025 military options, Western aid constraints, and diplomatic endgames—then translates them into concrete scenarios and trading implications.