// Expert analysis and insights on prediction markets.
// AI-powered research for informed decision making.
Prediction markets are already trading the Fed’s 2026 path on rates, inflation, and unemployment. This deep dive connects those odds to the Fed’s SEP, historical cutting cycles, QT endgame, and global central bank moves—so macro investors can trade the 2026 regime, not the headlines.
Dollar oil pricing is under its biggest challenge since the 1970s—but most experts still see erosion, not collapse. This deep-dive links the history of the petrodollar, BRICS de-dollarization moves, and yuan-based oil trade to concrete prediction markets on the future of dollar dominance.
How Europe’s break from Russian energy, the coming LNG wave, Middle East risks, US shale, China’s strategy, and the renewables transition are shaping 2026 oil and gas—and where prediction markets see mispriced geopolitical risk.
What 2026 prediction markets are really pricing for Brent, and how OPEC+ policy, Venezuela’s comeback, Iran’s sanctions dance, U.S. shale discipline, and China’s slowing demand will decide where oil trades.
Venezuela’s oil output, U.S. sanctions on PDVSA, and Chevron’s shifting license regime are at the center of several high-stakes prediction markets. This deep dive links the legal timeline, field-level constraints, and geopolitical deals with China and Russia to the 2026 outlook — and shows where market odds may be wrong.
Prediction markets say there’s only a 1% chance of a US recession in 2025. Classic indicators and institutional forecasts say the odds are much higher. This deep dive unpacks the disconnect—and how macro investors should trade it.