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Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 6 articles.

markets26d ago6 min

A Benchmark for AI Models on Prediction-Market Tasks

A domain benchmark for testing whether models can handle forecast calibration, resolution logic, orderbooks, cross-venue equivalence, thesis updates, and risk gates.

#prediction-markets#ai-benchmarks#forecasting#calibration
markets1mo ago14 min

How to Actually Make Money on Kalshi (Not the Advice You'll Find on Reddit)

#kalshi#strategy#beginner#how-to
markets1mo ago10 min

Monitoring the Situation: From Passive APIs to Proactive Intelligence

The $886M web scraping industry meets 9,706 prediction market contracts. Nobody is building the cross-reference layer. Until now.

#monitoring#prediction-markets#firecrawl#web-intelligence
markets2mo ago9 min

Why the Best Trading Terminal Is a Command Line

Bloomberg started as a keyboard. Robinhood ended as confetti. The next generation of trading infrastructure will be judged by how little there is to look at.

#trading#cli#prediction-markets#infrastructure
markets2mo ago12 min

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

Everything you know about stock orderbooks is almost correct for prediction markets. The "almost" will cost you money if you ignore it.

#orderbook#prediction market#liquidity#spread
markets2mo ago12 min

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

Two platforms dominate prediction markets in 2026, but they serve fundamentally different traders — here's what actually matters when you're putting real money on the line.

#kalshi#polymarket#prediction market comparison#prediction market trading