Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 6 articles.
NY-12 Primary Odds: Why Lasher Looks Slightly Underpriced Against Bores
Polls show Lasher and Bores inside the margin of error. Markets make Lasher a narrow favorite. The structure of the race argues that edge is still a little too small.
We Built a Legislation Tracker That Links Every Congressional Bill to Its Prediction Market
120 bill-market pairs. 23 Senate confirmation markets. Real-time cross-reference between Congress.gov and Kalshi.
Hungary Election 2026: $8M in Prediction Market Volume and a Historic Upset in the Making
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
Prediction markets are already pricing the 2026 fight for Congress as a split decision—lean Republican in the Senate, edge to Democrats in the House. This deep‑dive shows how to trade those odds using historical base rates, polling quality, Trump’s impact, economic scenarios, and the specific races that will decide control.
Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Trump’s second-term moves in Venezuela and across Latin America are reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and the use of force. Here’s how the policy logic fits together—and where prediction markets see the highest upside and downside risks.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
As of December 2025, prediction markets see Gavin Newsom as a top-tier 2028 contender—but California’s deficits, homelessness, and climate fights could move those odds fast. Here’s the data, the history, and how to trade it.