Blog
Prediction market analysis, strategies, and research. 9 articles.
We Built a Legislation Tracker That Links Every Congressional Bill to Its Prediction Market
120 bill-market pairs. 23 Senate confirmation markets. Real-time cross-reference between Congress.gov and Kalshi.
Hungary Election 2026: $8M in Prediction Market Volume and a Historic Upset in the Making
California Governor 2026: What $1.1M in Prediction Market Volume Is Telling Us
Trump Tariffs 2026: Trade War Risk with China & Mexico and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Trump’s 2025–26 tariff agenda revives trade‑war dynamics with China and raises new questions about Mexico, autos, inflation, and supply chains. This playbook shows how to read the policy path, quantify macro and sector impacts, and use prediction markets to trade the next phase of tariff risk.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
Prediction markets are already pricing the 2026 fight for Congress as a split decision—lean Republican in the Senate, edge to Democrats in the House. This deep‑dive shows how to trade those odds using historical base rates, polling quality, Trump’s impact, economic scenarios, and the specific races that will decide control.
Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Trump’s second-term moves in Venezuela and across Latin America are reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and the use of force. Here’s how the policy logic fits together—and where prediction markets see the highest upside and downside risks.
How Prediction Markets See the 2028 Presidential Election: Democratic Nomination, Political Outsiders, and Celebrity Candidates
Polymarket and other exchanges are pouring millions into sub‑1% long shots for the 2028 Democratic nomination — from Michelle Obama to MrBeast. Here’s what these speculative bets reveal about an unusually open field, the role of celebrity, and how traders can use the odds.
Donald Trump Out 2025? How 25th Amendment Rules, Presidential Succession, and Political Stability Markets Price the Risk He Doesn’t Finish the Year
Prediction markets are giving Donald Trump roughly even odds of *not* finishing 2025 in office. This deep dive breaks down what those prices actually imply—across health, resignation, impeachment, the 25th Amendment, and broader U.S. political stability—so traders and risk analysts can size the trade instead of just reacting to headlines.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
As of December 2025, prediction markets see Gavin Newsom as a top-tier 2028 contender—but California’s deficits, homelessness, and climate fights could move those odds fast. Here’s the data, the history, and how to trade it.