Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Is the Consensus — But Markets Still Underpricing It

The Fed is locked at 98% no-change for April, but the real trade is 2026: zero cuts is now the modal outcome at 37% and still climbing. With oil surging 12% (inflationary shock) layered on top of already-sticky core inflation, the hawkish hold thesis is reinforced. Markets pricing a 65¢ probability of rates reaching 3.25% before 2027 suggests cuts are being priced out rapidly. Fade any dovish repricing — the oil shock makes easing politically and practically impossible.