HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 6, 2026
Kalshi Gas Price Markets Massively Mispriced Amid Oil Surge
Kalshi's weekly gas price markets (April 6 settlement) are pricing YES at 1-2 cents for prices above $4.13-$4.17 — implying near-zero probability of average gas prices at those levels. With crude oil up 12% today and current national averages already near those thresholds, these markets represent perhaps the most obvious mispricing in the dataset. Buy YES aggressively across the $4.13-$4.17 strike ladder before the next AAA weekly print.
edge88¢
horizon1w
directionBUY YES
markets3
Catalyst
AAA weekly gas price report due April 6, 2026; crude oil +12% today directly feeds pump prices with 1-2 week lag
Risk
Oil rally reverses sharply on Iran deal or demand destruction before prices flow through to retail gas
Referenced Markets
sf ideas && sf book KXAAAGASW-26APR06-4.130More Ideas
Hormuz Warship Markets Massively Mispriced — US Navy Already Mobilizing
BUY YESHIGH82¢ edgegeopolitics
Gas Prices Above $4.13 This Week Is a Near-Certainty, Priced at 1.5¢BUY YESHIGH88¢ edgemacro
Hormuz Traffic Near Zero Is Already Happening — Sell the 'Above 3' MarketBUY NOHIGH81¢ edgegeopolitics
Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Is the Consensus — But Markets Still Underpricing ItBUY YESMEDIUM8¢ edgemacro
GPT-6 June Release Odds Doubled — But 42¢ Is Still Too CheapBUY YESMEDIUM10¢ edgeevent