HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 6, 2026

Kalshi Gas Price Markets Massively Mispriced Amid Oil Surge

Kalshi's weekly gas price markets (April 6 settlement) are pricing YES at 1-2 cents for prices above $4.13-$4.17 — implying near-zero probability of average gas prices at those levels. With crude oil up 12% today and current national averages already near those thresholds, these markets represent perhaps the most obvious mispricing in the dataset. Buy YES aggressively across the $4.13-$4.17 strike ladder before the next AAA weekly print.

edge88¢
horizon1w
directionBUY YES
markets3
Catalyst

AAA weekly gas price report due April 6, 2026; crude oil +12% today directly feeds pump prices with 1-2 week lag

Risk

Oil rally reverses sharply on Iran deal or demand destruction before prices flow through to retail gas

Referenced Markets

KALSHI·KXAAAGASW-26APR06-4.130Kalshi
Will average gas prices be above $4.130?
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KALSHI·KXAAAGASW-26APR06-4.140Kalshi
Will average gas prices be above $4.140?
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KALSHI·KXAAAGASW-26APR06-4.150Kalshi
Will average gas prices be above $4.150?
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Execute with CLIsf ideas && sf book KXAAAGASW-26APR06-4.130

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