HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 5, 2026
Gas Prices Above $4.13 Next Week Is Nearly Free Money
Oil surged 12% today and Kalshi is pricing gas above $4.13 by April 6 at just 8¢. With crude ripping on Iran invasion fears (55¢ on Polymarket) and refinery lag typically 1-2 weeks, this is a near-certain arbitrage. The edge models show 84+ cents of implied value against a market price of 8¢. Buy every gas price strike from $4.13 to $4.17 on Kalshi.
edge83¢
horizon1w
directionBUY YES
markets3
Catalyst
AAA weekly gas price report due April 6, 2026 — oil +12% today guarantees pass-through
Risk
Oil reverses sharply on Iran de-escalation before refinery prices adjust, but even then pump prices lag crude down by days
Referenced Markets
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