Gas Prices Above $4.17 Next Week — Market Says 50/50, Reality Says No

Kalshi has gas prices above $4.17 by April 6 at 50¢, but current national average gas prices are nowhere near that level and would require an extraordinary short-term surge even with today's oil move. The thesis-implied edge data shows these contracts are significantly overpriced at 50¢ — the edge models suggest only 20-25¢ fair value. This is a straightforward NO trade: oil supply shocks take 4-6 weeks to flow through to retail pump prices, not 5 days.