Fed Zero Cuts in 2026 Is Most Likely — Rates Higher For Longer Mispriced

Oil shock from Iran war is the Fed's nightmare: supply-side inflation surge that prevents easing even as growth slows. Markets now price 37% odds of zero rate cuts in 2026, making it the single most likely outcome, yet the macro media narrative still anchors on 1-2 cuts. The April meeting is locked at 98% no-change. Buy the 'zero cuts' or 'hawkish hold' outcome across available rate markets.