Democrats at 88% to Flip House — Momentum Has Overshot

Democrats are priced at 88¢ to win the House in 2026, a number that feels stretched 18+ months before the election. Historical base rates for midterm wave elections rarely justify this certainty this early — even 2018 Democrats peaked around 75% in final weeks. Buying NO here is a contrarian time-decay play: the market will reprice lower as polling volatility emerges. The 12¢ price on Republicans winning represents asymmetric upside.