MEDIUM·BUY NO·macroApr 7, 2026
Zero Fed Cuts in 2026 Is Now the Consensus — Fade the Consensus
Markets now price 37% odds of zero Fed cuts in 2026 — the single most likely outcome — but this is a reflexive response to Iran war oil-shock headlines. The Fed has historically looked through geopolitical oil spikes, and a stagflationary shock actually increases pressure to cut to support slowing growth. The 'zero cuts' thesis has overshot. Buying 1-2 cuts contracts for 2026 offers contrarian value as the inflation-vs-growth tradeoff reasserts itself.
edge8¢
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directionBUY NO
markets2
Catalyst
Next Fed meeting communications; any growth data showing slowdown would shift expectations back to cuts
Risk
Inflation prints remain hot as oil shock feeds through CPI, cementing Fed hold through year-end
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