How likely is "US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 2025"?

Our causal model estimates 0% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism"?

Our causal model estimates 45% probability for this factor. This is driven by 4 sub-factors.

How likely is "Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize"?

Our causal model estimates 0% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

How likely is "GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play"?

Our causal model estimates 0% probability for this factor. This is driven by 3 sub-factors.

Home/Theses/Will Iran War Split MAGA and Flip 2026 H

Will Iran War Split MAGA and Flip 2026 House Control?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Updated 2mo ago·Published Mar 24·archived

⚙ Engine outputInvestment thesis produced by the SimpleFunctions Engine, continuously adversarially checked against live market data. Does not represent any political stance of the company.

Current Assessment

Our causal model estimates 0% probability (started at 11%). Kalshi markets price the top related contract (40) at 90¢, while our thesis implies 25¢ — a +65¢ edge. Across 115 tracked contracts, we see systematic mispricing.

Latest evaluation (2mo ago): No material change to thesis confidence. The most notable development is a dramatic repricing in gas futures markets — multiple Kalshi contracts for national average gas above $4.12-$4.26 collapsed from 50¢ to 1-2¢, signaling markets do not expect sustained high gas prices. This directly undermines

Thesis

MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. If war continues through summer with gas above $4 and farm costs rising, GOP midterm advantage consumed by its own war. House and Senate control in play.

Confidence

0% ░░░░░░░░░░

Implied Return

+24.1%

Contracts

132tracked

Track Record

Batting Average

.300

Edges Tracked

132

Avg Movement

-1.0¢

.030 batting average across 132 contracts. The lens has been mostly wrong on direction so far — still a valid frame if the sector is worth watching, but confidence reflects that.

Confidence Over Time

Mar 24Apr 12

Implied Returns

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.170?3¢→50¢+1566.7%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.260?8¢→50¢+525%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.220?8¢→50¢+525%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.150?8¢→50¢+525%

Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?9¢→52.5¢+483.3%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.240?10¢→50¢+400%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.200?20¢→50¢+150%

Will average **gas prices** be above $4.180?20¢→50¢+150%

Weekly Analysis

Episode 4·2026-03-25 – 2026-04-01·▲ 0%

MAGA-splits thesis flat at 10% — limited movement as midterm dynamics consolidate

Causal Model

Each factor has an estimated probability. Changes propagate through the tree to update overall confidence.

n1US-Iran military conflict escalates through summer 20250%░░░░░░░░░░

n1.1US conducts sustained air campaign or ground operations against Iran0%░░░░░░░░░░

n1.2Iran retaliates in ways that force continued US engagement5%█░░░░░░░░░

n1.3No ceasefire or diplomatic off-ramp is reached before September 202596%██████████

n2Visible MAGA coalition fracture over interventionism45%█████░░░░░

n2.1Joe Kent resigns or publicly breaks with Trump over Iran policy99%██████████

n2.2Multiple MAGA-aligned House members vote against war authorization or funding6%█░░░░░░░░░

n2.3Right-wing media splits (e.g., Tucker Carlson vs. hawkish outlets)99%██████████

n2.4MAGA primary challengers emerge on anti-war platforms for 20268%█░░░░░░░░░

n3Economic pain: gas above $4 and rising farm costs materialize0%░░░░░░░░░░

n3.1National average gas price exceeds $4/gallon by summer 202599%██████████

n3.2Farm input costs rise significantly due to conflict98%██████████

n3.3Voters attribute economic pain to the war and to the GOP0%░░░░░░░░░░

n4GOP midterm advantage is consumed: House control in play0%░░░░░░░░░░

n4.1Generic congressional ballot shifts to D+3 or better by mid-20260%░░░░░░░░░░

n4.2GOP incumbents in swing districts face depressed turnout from base fracture35%████░░░░░░

n4.3Democrats win House majority in November 20266%█░░░░░░░░░

n5Senate control comes into play for Democrats in 20262%░░░░░░░░░░

n5.1At least 2-3 GOP-held Senate seats become competitive due to war backlash11%█░░░░░░░░░

n5.2MAGA primary fights produce weak GOP Senate nominees20%██░░░░░░░░

n5.3Democrats win Senate majority in November 20268%█░░░░░░░░░

n6Conditional chain holds: war causes split causes economic pain causes electoral reversal0%░░░░░░░░░░

n6.1The MAGA split is primarily driven by the Iran war rather than other issues55%██████░░░░

n6.2Economic pain is primarily war-driven rather than from other macro factors0%░░░░░░░░░░

Market Edge Analysis

Contracts where market price diverges from thesis-implied value. Positive edge = market underprices this outcome.

	Contract	Market	Model	Edge	Spread	Drift	Depth
K	40NO	90¢	25¢	+65¢	6¢	+34¢	328.07/49
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: May 15NO	80¢	15¢	+65¢	1¢	+26¢	38K/27K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30NO	90¢	25¢	+65¢	1¢	+20¢	33K/7K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: April 30NO	75¢	10¢	+65¢	1¢	+34¢	47K/69K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: April 15NO	68¢	5¢	+63¢	2¢	+40¢	1K/62
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: April 7NO	66¢	3¢	+63¢	4¢	+49¢	3K/195
P	Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?: April 30YES	6¢	65¢	+60¢	3¢	-35¢	2K/5K
P	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: December 31NO	95¢	40¢	+55¢	0¢	+12¢	19K/4K
K	50NO	68¢	20¢	+48¢	8¢	+19¢	738.92/125.61
K	Will average gas prices be above or below $4.00 by Dec 31, 2026?YES	8¢	55¢	+48¢	13¢	-9¢	100/31
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?NO	54¢	8¢	+46¢	6¢	+11¢	585/679
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?NO	60¢	15¢	+45¢	1¢	+10¢	2K/2K
K	Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal before August?NO	46¢	3¢	+43¢	2¢	+13¢	833.37/904.86
K	Will average gas prices be above $4.120?YES	50¢	92¢	+42¢	100¢	-33¢	0/0
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?YES	4¢	45¢	+42¢	3¢	-15¢	961/344

Settled Contracts

17 contracts resolved.

	Contract	Result	Model Said	Verdict
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?	YES	NO @ 15¢	✗ wrong
P	US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	YES	NO @ 25¢	✗ wrong
P	What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?: US x Iran Ceasefire	YES	NO @ 25¢	✗ wrong
P	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?	NO	YES @ 15¢	✗ wrong
P	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: April 30	NO	YES @ 12¢	✗ wrong
K	Will Democratics win the Senate race in Nebraska?	NO	YES @ 10¢	✗ wrong
K	Will Marjorie Taylor-Greene be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?	NO	YES @ 8¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Nikki Haley	NO	YES @ 8¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Rand Paul	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong
P	Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Tulsi Gabbard	NO	YES @ 6¢	✗ wrong

Recent Evaluations

Automated analysis runs every 15 minutes. Major events trigger immediate re-evaluation.

Apr 12 00:490%(0%)

No material change to thesis confidence. The most notable development is a dramatic repricing in gas futures markets — multiple Kalshi contracts for national average gas above $4.12-$4.26 collapsed fr

Apr 11 06:030%(0%)

No material change to thesis. The most notable development is a dramatic collapse in prediction market prices for gas above $4/gallon (all contracts above $4.12 now at 1-2¢ on Kalshi), which actually

Apr 10 01:030%(0%)

Kill condition triggered: Trump announced a two-week suspension of Iran bombing and ceasefire, directly invalidating the core thesis assumption of sustained US-Iran conflict through summer 2025. Node

Apr 9 02:496%(+2%)

Most significant development: Gas prices have confirmed hit $4 nationally with explicit attribution to the Iran war, AND Trump advisers are privately expressing midterm loss fears with independents at

Apr 8 02:354%(0%)

No material change to thesis confidence. The dominant signal is a sharp collapse in gas price futures (contracts above $4.13-4.26 all fell to ~1-2 cents), confirming that markets do not expect sustain

Apr 7 08:0411%(+4%)

Most important development: Gas prices confirmed above $4/gallon with ABC11 directly attributing the surge to Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure, while MAGA media fracture has gone fully public wit

Apr 6 19:0313%(+6%)

Gas prices confirming above $4 (war-attributed by media) and continued mainstream MAGA infighting coverage are modestly bullish for the thesis chain. The most important development is the explicit med

Apr 5 16:338%(-5%)

Kill condition triggered: Israel-Iran ceasefire confirmed, with experts forecasting gas below $3/gallon by September — directly inverting two of the thesis's core economic pain nodes (n3.1 was locked

Apr 4 03:1913%(+3%)

The single most important development: US national average gas prices have confirmed crossed $4/gallon, explicitly attributed to the Iran conflict — directly confirming node n3.1 and materially streng

Apr 3 10:4913%(+3%)

Major bullish signal: NPR article dated April 1, 2026 confirms gas prices have exceeded $4/gallon as a direct result of the Iran war, materially confirming node n3.1 and strengthening the n3 economic

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