US Escorts Warship Through Hormuz — Market Massively Underpriced

Polymarket has US escorting commercial ships through Hormuz by April 30 at just 15.5¢, while the edge data shows a 92¢ thesis-implied probability — a 76-cent gap. With US forces already confirmed in the region at 100¢ and Iran conflict escalating daily, the operational logic for an escort mission is overwhelming. The 'which countries send warships through Hormuz' market is similarly mispriced at 19.5¢ for the US. Both contracts represent the same thesis at an extraordinary discount.