Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in an 85% probability of Antonoff attending Swift's wedding, but the extreme 801.8% implied yield on "No" suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside—with only $3,407 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this is a thin market vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 85% probability of Antonoff attending Swift's wedding, but the extreme 801.8% implied yield on "No" suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the downside—with only $3,407 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, this is a thin market vulnerable to sharp reversals. The 7-cent spread and recent 7-point price climb from 78¢ to 85¢ indicate modest upward momentum, though the high cliff risk index (6) reflects binary event risk tied to whether the wedding occurs at all by end-2026. The 25% implied yield on "Yes" is reasonable given the 258-day timeframe, but traders should note this resolves to "No" if no Swift-Kelce wedding materializes, adding compounding uncertainty beyond just Antonoff's attendance.
Also on kalshi at 84¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x01650214bee3782ba689c78b4a5179c5dbcdd84212c01e872399f14799272cb7 yes 100