Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?

PA-07 is pricing Republicans at just 22¢ despite the seat's historical lean, with the Yes side offering an extreme 496% implied yield—a red flag suggesting either severe illiquidity or mispricing given the $0 24-hour volume and wide 12¢ spread. The 906% realized volatility and 3.38 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced dramatic swings, likely driven by sparse information arrival (1.1/hour) rather than fundamental shifts, making the recent 3¢ decline from 25¢ potentially noise rather than signal. With 199 days to expiry and only $2.2M open interest, traders should be cautious of cliff risk (score of 3) and the illiquidity premium embedded in these extreme yields.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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