Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?

The Democratic lean in NJ-09 is priced at 82¢, implying a comfortable 18-point advantage, though the extreme 887% implied yield on "No" signals severe mispricing on the Republican side given the illiquid $8,233 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 228% realized volatility and 3.61 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced significant price swings despite its thin liquidity, and the modest 3¢ spread masks potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a low-information market where the Democratic baseline holds but lacks the trading activity to validate confidence in either tail outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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