Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5

Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. The Under contract at 37¢ implies only a 37% probability of fewer than 4 combined goals, yet shows extreme implied yields (21,662% for Yes, 7,472% for No) driven by minimal liquidity ($7.4M open interest, zero 24-hour volume).

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39¢
Bid/Ask 38/39¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $74.639·OI $16,805.806·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0x030adf2bbd8f0d4c4504aee2fb90d3b75b1e00243133e7d9c56d9c5daa6cae17
7-day price228 snapshots · 20 regime
59¢39¢ current
Apr 1226¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

The Under contract at 37¢ implies only a 37% probability of fewer than 4 combined goals, yet shows extreme implied yields (21,662% for Yes, 7,472% for No) driven by minimal liquidity ($7.4M open interest, zero 24-hour volume). The price has collapsed 12 cents over seven days amid realized volatility exceeding 1,100%, suggesting either a dramatic shift in market sentiment or potential data anomalies, with resolution arriving in just 3 days before the April 22 match.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game between Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 98771.2%
IY (No) 40373.8%
Adj IY 14486%
CRI 2
RV 140%
VR 0.04
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)98771.2%
IY (No)40373.8%
Adj IY14486%
CRI2
RV140%
VR0.04
IAR0.3/h
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 10:19:49 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x030adf2bbd8f0d4c4504aee2fb90d3b75b1e00243133e7d9c56d9c5daa6cae17 yes 100

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