Will Jorge Masvidal fight Conor McGregor next?

The 12-cent cross-venue gap between Polymarket (14¢) and Kalshi (26¢) represents a significant arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing Masvidal at roughly half the probability of the Kalshi market. The extreme 695% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $86 and a wide 25-cent spread suggests very thin liquidity on Polymarket, making the low price potentially unreliable rather than a true market consensus. With 323 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,406%, this market exhibits high uncertainty typical of speculative MMA matchup betting, though the neutral regime score and modest 1.5 info arrivals per hour suggest limited near-term catalyst activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Indicators

Regime

Trade