Will Conor McGregor fight next?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will Conor McGregor fight next?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. The 37¢ Kalshi price implies only a 37% probability McGregor fights Masvidal by 2028, but the Yes side offers an exceptional 167% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the long 623-day timeframe.
Analysis
The 37¢ Kalshi price implies only a 37% probability McGregor fights Masvidal by 2028, but the Yes side offers an exceptional 167% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the long 623-day timeframe. A stark 23¢ cross-venue gap exists with Polymarket (14¢), indicating either Kalshi bettors are more bullish on this specific matchup or liquidity constraints are pricing inefficiently. The extreme 1,083% realized volatility and recent 7-day surge from 4¢ to 26¢ signal high uncertainty and recent information arrival, though the modest $2,909 open interest and $26 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings.
Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ +12¢)
Resolution rules
If the first fight Conor McGregor has starting Aug 7, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2028 is with Jorge Masvidal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT-28-JMAS yes 100