Will the Democratic Party win the OH-14 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing at just 13¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1217% for the Yes side, reflecting the seat's strong Republican lean in Ohio's 14th district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $16.5k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the extreme yield may not represent genuine arbitrage opportunity but rather illiquidity premium and wide bid-ask gaps. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election and moderate cliff risk score of 7 suggest the market has adequate time for price discovery, though the lack of recent trading activity indicates limited market participant confidence in either outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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