Will Carlos Soler be in the Spain World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 64% probability that Will Carlos Soler be in the Spain World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 64¢ on Kalshi, closing June 16, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward momentum, dropping 8 cents over seven days from 78¢ to the current 19¢ price, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Soler's World Cup selection prospects.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward momentum, dropping 8 cents over seven days from 78¢ to the current 19¢ price, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Soler's World Cup selection prospects. The extremely lopsided implied yields—268.5% for Yes versus 1462.0% for No—indicate the market is heavily skewed toward rejection, though the thin liquidity ($299.02 open interest, $204.37 daily volume) and wide 10¢ spread raise questions about price reliability. With 58 days until the June 2026 expiry, there's still substantial time for Soler's club form and injury status to shift market expectations, though the sharp recent decline suggests recent negative developments may have already priced in.
Resolution rules
If Carlos Soler is selected for the final squad for the Spain national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-CSOL yes 100