Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score

The 66¢ price reflects a reasonable baseline for both teams scoring in a Bundesliga matchup, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $215k open interest, making the extreme yield figures (3255% for Yes, 12267% for No) largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 7-cent spread is notable given the thin liquidity, and the dramatic 584% realized volatility suggests this contract has experienced sharp repricing—likely driven by the 10-cent move over seven days as the match approaches in just six days. With only a 0.9/h information arrival rate and neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in reasonable fundamentals, but traders should be cautious of execution risk given the illiquidity profile.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming DFB-Pokal game between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München, scheduled for April 22 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Bayern München each score at least one goal during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if either team fails to score (i.e., if one or both teams finish with zero goals). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on dfb.de. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Regime

Trade