Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

The MDB is priced at a significant discount (11¢) despite being Brazil's largest centrist party by historical standards, suggesting either market skepticism about its 2026 performance or undervaluation relative to fundamentals. The extreme implied yield of 1,730% on the Yes side contrasts sharply with the modest 26.4% on the No side, indicating asymmetric risk pricing that may reflect low liquidity ($33k 24h volume) and high realized volatility (2,287%), making this market potentially inefficient. The sharp 3-cent decline over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests elevated tail risk, though with 171 days to expiry there remains substantial time for political developments to reshape expectations around Senate

Resolution rules

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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