Will Hunter Greene win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

Hunter Greene's Cy Young odds have surged from 6¢ to 35¢ over seven days, reflecting a significant positive catalyst, though the extreme 793% implied yield on the yes side and massive 3,423% realized volatility suggest the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around his injury history and performance trajectory. The 69¢ spread and near-zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity despite $1.43M open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions and raising questions about whether the 35¢ price reflects genuine consensus or thin-market distortion. With 210 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative positioning rather than a fundamentally resolved market, warranting caution around the headline probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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