Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?

This market is pricing an 8% probability of a BoC rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,740% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and mispricing rather than genuine conviction—the $2,035 open interest with zero 24-hour volume and a 4¢ spread suggest this contract is essentially inactive. The 1,185% realized volatility and maximum cliff risk index of 10 indicate extreme uncertainty around resolution mechanics, likely driven by the unusual continuous resolution format (basis point changes) rather than binary outcomes, making this an unreliable probability estimate for actual BoC policy expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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