Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a substantial 1,265% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 10¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a lack of trading activity. The $7,824 open interest and 2¢ spread indicate minimal liquidity depth, creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 9, the market faces considerable uncertainty around Bitcoin's monthly performance distribution across 2026, making the asymmetric yield profile potentially misleading given the illiquid microstructure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.

Indicators

Regime

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