Will Gold, S&P 500, or Bitcoin perform best in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
6h ago
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
KXBTCVSGOLD-26
What moved the line
- Jun 21Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?↓9pp25→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 47% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 76% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 6% · 0d
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700Blast 33% · 6d
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000last 86% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (20% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin: June $75k at 5¢, $100k target dims; bearish $40k protection at 30¢
Bitcoin sentiment is cautious: June above $75k is at 5¢, $100k by July 2026 near 0. The 'BTC below $40k by 2027' at 30¢ is the most liquid bearish contract. Watch the June 30 max/min trim spreads.
Bitcoin Sentiment Sours: Market Paints a Bearish Picture for Q3 2026
Bitcoin is down 2.31% on the day (IBIT), and prediction markets now give a 72% probability that BTC will drop below $55,000 in 2026, up 2 points today. The odds of reclaiming $100,000 by July 1 are just 1%, a stark reversal of relatively recent bullish sentiment.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.