Will Gold, S&P 500, or Bitcoin perform best in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+4pp
12h ago
24h volume
$2K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
145 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026
Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?
KXBTCVSGOLD-26
What moved the line
- Aug 2Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 32% · 0d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 52% · 0d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 16% · 0d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029last 17% · 25d
- Will BTC trimmed mean be below $62500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026last 17% · 39d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (22% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.