Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 75% probability that Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?. This contract trades at 75¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.

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75¢
Bid/Ask 73/76¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $72.67·OI $26,231.989·Closes Nov 3, 2026·195d remaining
0x1ca38119fa2b6100d7ed51b5cd6b6ee77148ea41504bb975bfe6e531f07f51dd
7-day price16 snapshots · 13 regime
79¢75¢ current
Apr 1074¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62.4%
IY (No) 561.7%
Adj IY 281%
CRI 3
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)62.4%
IY (No)561.7%
Adj IY281%
CRI3

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:29:33 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x1ca38119fa2b6100d7ed51b5cd6b6ee77148ea41504bb975bfe6e531f07f51dd yes 100

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