Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)

Austin FC's -1.5 spread is trading at an extremely depressed 14¢ with zero 24-hour volume despite $94k open interest, suggesting this is a stale or illiquid position with the 47¢ to 14¢ price collapse likely driven by late-arriving information rather than active trading. The astronomical 33,089% implied yield on the Yes side and 4,843% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or a market dysfunction, possibly reflecting a one-sided position that cannot find counterparties with only 7 days to expiry. The 6.0 Cliff Risk Index and 3.91 volatility ratio confirm extreme tail risk, suggesting traders should treat this quote with skepticism until volume returns to validate the current price discovery.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for April 22 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Austin FC" if Austin FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Jose Earthquakes". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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