Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?

This market is pricing in only a 7% probability of SpaceX raising $40-50B, down from 8¢ a week ago, despite zero 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread suggesting illiquidity and potential stale pricing. The extreme 4852% realized volatility and high cliff risk index (13) indicate this contract has experienced dramatic swings, likely driven by sporadic news flow (3.4 info arrivals per hour) rather than sustained trading interest. With $3.3M open interest but no recent volume, the market may be underpricing this outcome if traders believe SpaceX's valuation expectations have shifted toward the $40-50B range, or it could reflect genuine skepticism about whether an IPO occurs at all.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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