Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 72% probability that Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 72¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Belgium is priced at a dominant 72% to win Group G, reflecting strong market confidence in their qualification prospects, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (200% for Yes vs.
Analysis
Belgium is priced at a dominant 72% to win Group G, reflecting strong market confidence in their qualification prospects, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (200% for Yes vs. 1,323% for No) suggest the No side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 662%. The market shows minimal activity with just $89.7 in 24-hour volume against $7.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, indicating low liquidity despite the high stakes—typical for long-dated sports markets with 71 days to expiry. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest the market has settled on Belgium's favoritism with little recent conviction shift, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 3 warrants monitoring for potential late-stage repricing closer to the June tournament.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1e285f49c483634426c54834f840f6bfe780e0039eb0ad31357b936600b7c2d2 yes 100