Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Adam Steen is priced at a modest 14¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($20.2K open interest and just $90 in 24-hour volume), creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position.
Analysis
Adam Steen is priced at a modest 14¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($20.2K open interest and just $90 in 24-hour volume), creating significant execution risk for any meaningful position. The astronomical 4,879% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the long-shot odds combined with minimal time value, though the 866% realized volatility and 6/10 cliff risk score suggest this market has experienced sharp moves despite flat price action over the past week. With only 46 days to resolution and a 1.28 vol ratio, traders should be cautious of potential information shocks or liquidity crises near the June 2 primary date.
Also on kalshi at 5¢(Δ +3¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x201305cdb4e6a8c4b4c48f1e24835fce62fbfc75efd608255e36c7d504fde6c8 yes 100