Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC end in a draw?

This market shows extreme distress signals with a 24-hour volume of $0 despite $2.3M open interest, suggesting severe liquidity constraints and potential stranded positions. The 17,058% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with a 551% realized volatility and sharp 35¢-to-24¢ price drop over seven days indicates either a data anomaly or a deeply mispriced contract approaching its April 23 expiration. The 3¢ spread and neutral regime score offer little reassurance given the cliff risk index of 3 and near-zero trading activity, making this market unreliable for genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 22, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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