San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC
Leader sits at 19% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
San Jose
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
San Jose
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
201 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS
Analysis
This 7% probability reflects market expectations that San Jose Earthquakes will win the 2026 MLS Cup. The low figure reflects San Jose's recent competitive standing within MLS; the team would need sustained regular-season performance and playoff success to shift these odds materially upward. The most relevant catalyst is the 2026 MLS season itself, which determines playoff qualification and seeding. Kalshi's 10% estimate runs 6 percentage points higher than Polymarket's 4%, suggesting disagreement on San Jose's true chances. Both venues show minimal recent trading volume on these contracts, indicating limited market conviction behind the current prices and relatively shallow liquidity.
- ›San Jose Earthquakes' 2026 regular-season win-loss record and final conference standing will directly determine playoff position and tournament path
- ›The cross-venue 6-percentage-point gap (Kalshi 10% vs Polymarket 4%) indicates material disagreement on probability, suggesting one market may be mispriced or reflecting different trader bases
- ›Trading volume is near-zero on all listed contracts over the past 24 hours, indicating low market attention and the possibility that prices reflect few actual trades rather than active consensus
- ›San Jose's roster composition and injury status through the 2026 season will affect their ability to compete against stronger MLS franchises in a knockout tournament format
- ›MLS Cup is a single-elimination tournament, meaning even moderately competitive teams face steep odds; baseline probability for a mid-tier team in a 28-team league is substantially below 7%
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (19% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.