What is the current probability for "Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-01?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 1, 2026. 3 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-01?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 18618.5% and 6422.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-01?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-01?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-01?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing May 1, 2026.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 8/66¢·Spread 58¢·Vol $0·OI $309.359·Closes May 1, 2026·3d remaining

0x23c1a9c5a120ffb7718c210c90289e0e7611483ab78a077db3bcadda6315673b

7-day price14 snapshots · 3 regime

40¢38¢ current

Apr 2636¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 1, 2026 If Club Independiente Petrolero wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 18618.5%

IY (No) 6422.0%

Adj IY 18619%

CRI 2

RV 491%

VR 0.37

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	18618.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6422.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	18619%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	491%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.37	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

58¢

Computed

4/27/2026, 3:59:33 PM

Indicators computed 4/27/2026, 3:53:55 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x23c1a9c5a120ffb7718c210c90289e0e7611483ab78a077db3bcadda6315673b yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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