Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?

This market shows extremely high implied yields (513.7% for Yes, 474.2% for No) relative to its 74-day timeframe, suggesting the 51¢ price may undervalue the probability of gold touching $4,600 given current spot prices near $2,000-2,100 range—a move requiring roughly 120-130% appreciation that appears priced as a tail risk event. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $1.16M open interest and a wide 9¢ spread indicates illiquid pricing that could shift significantly with modest order flow, and the neutral regime score (0.5) provides little directional conviction for mean reversion. The market's 18-month duration and any-day-touch resolution structure create substantial cliff risk despite the low index score, as a single volatile spike could trigger resolution well before June 2026 expiry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price on any trading day between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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