Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?

This PA-08 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4M open interest, paired with a massive 18¢ bid-ask spread and extraordinary 1,715% realized volatility—suggesting minimal recent trading activity and potential stale pricing. The 27¢ Republican price implies a heavily Democratic-favored district, consistent with PA-08's recent voting patterns, though the 498% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the wide spread rather than genuine edge. With 198 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears to be a low-information placeholder rather than an active price discovery mechanism.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade