Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?

The 23¢ price reflects a modest 23% probability despite an extraordinarily high 2782% implied yield on "Yes" positions, suggesting the market is pricing in substantial tail risk for an Israeli strike on Yemen within 44 days. The extreme yield asymmetry combined with elevated realized volatility of 356% and a moderate 0.5/hour information arrival rate indicates traders are hedging against low-probability but high-impact geopolitical escalation, though the flat 7-day price action and tight 2¢ spread suggest consensus around current valuations. With $10.9M in open interest against only $240K daily volume, liquidity is relatively constrained for the position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders seeking to adjust exposure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade