Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will GCR appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1,621% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiration, suggesting either severe illiquidity (just $662 open interest with a 5¢ spread) or structural underpricing of a guest appearance on an established podcast.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 1,621% annualized yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiration, suggesting either severe illiquidity (just $662 open interest with a 5¢ spread) or structural underpricing of a guest appearance on an established podcast. The 7-day price decline from 10¢ to 8¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($22.79) and extraordinarily high realized volatility (1,723%) indicates this is a thin, speculative market where small trades create outsized price swings rather than reflecting genuine probability shifts. The neutral regime and modest information arrival rate (1.9/h) suggest no recent catalyst has driven the repricing, making this potentially exploitable if GCR has any meaningful connection to the UpOnly hosts.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x27aad6b150842f937852361de3f82b7f8c927a2fa89f8b3c49d955af32e73bd1 yes 100