Will Jesse Pollak appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite $635k open interest, with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 21¢ spread indicating thin order books. The 601% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 2291% realized volatility and a 18.46 vol ratio suggests highly speculative positioning rather than informed price discovery. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 18¢ price likely reflects low base-rate expectations for a specific guest appearance rather than fundamental information, making this a low-conviction market vulnerable to sudden repricing on any news about Pollak or the podcast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

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