Will the Democratic Party win the PA-12 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $34k open interest, suggesting the 91¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The asymmetric implied yields—18% for Yes versus 1839% for No—indicate the No position is dramatically underpriced relative to the 9% probability it implies, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity if Democratic dominance in PA-12 is overstated. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market warrants caution as the illiquidity combined with the extreme yield skew suggests pricing inefficiency rather than settled conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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