Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stagnant or held by long-term speculators.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stagnant or held by long-term speculators. The 4¢ price has declined 33% over seven days (from 6¢), yet the astronomical 7,124% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicates either deep mispricing or that traders view Bien as an extreme long-shot with minimal realistic probability. The 2,597% realized volatility and high cliff risk (24) suggest this market has experienced sharp historical swings, making the current 2¢ spread potentially misleading given the lack of recent price discovery.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Wyoming, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wyoming Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wyoming Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x2feb40aff6af2f0dc6add7e6eb22cb854e861c4369d565bea18f17fce4c2acc7 yes 100