Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

This market is pricing an 8-10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquake outcome at just 7¢, implying a historically low probability despite the "Yes" side offering an extraordinary 1,879.5% implied yield—a massive risk premium suggesting severe underpricing or extreme skepticism about this specific band occurring. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $5 against $4.3M open interest indicates severe liquidity constraints and potential difficulty exiting positions, which combined with the 13 Cliff Risk Index score suggests sharp resolution discontinuities around the 8-10 threshold. Historical seismic data shows roughly 1 magnitude 7.0+ earthquake annually on average, making 8-10 occurrences in a single year a genuine tail event, though the asymmetric yield structure hints the market may be overweighting the "No" outcome relative to baseline seismic frequency distributions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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