How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Leader sits at 69% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0 (0 bps)
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
1 (25 bps)
Spread
50pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$57K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
210 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 0 (0 bps)
0xd4e77b…8527
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 2 (50 bps)
0xe0d9f5…c1cd
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 3 (75 bps)
0x8d4966…e67c
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: 1 (25 bps)
0x5e082f…905c
Analysis
This probability reflects trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all during 2026, keeping rates flat throughout the year. The 26% probability reflects mixed signals: the June meeting contract shows 95% confidence in rate maintenance, suggesting near-term stability, but disagreement between venues (Kalshi at 39% vs. Polymarket at 21%) indicates genuine uncertainty about the full-year outlook. The main driver is current inflation data and labor market strength—persistent price pressures or robust employment would support holding rates steady, while recession signals or disinflation could force at least one cut. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting is the immediate catalyst, but the outcome depends heavily on inflation readings and economic data released between now and then, particularly PCE reports and employment figures.
- ›June 2026 Fed meeting shows 95% implied probability of rate maintenance on Kalshi, indicating near-term hold expectations
- ›18 percentage-point gap between Kalshi (39%) and Polymarket (21%) suggests material disagreement on whether zero cuts persist all year
- ›Contract volume and pricing show traders assign only 3% probability to a 25bp cut at June meeting, but higher probabilities to cuts later in 2026
- ›Zero-cut scenario requires both inflation to remain elevated and labor market to avoid significant deterioration through year-end
- ›Multiple cuts scenario (2+ cuts, totaling 50bp+) trades at 13-18% combined, implying market assigns non-trivial risk to economic slowdown
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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