Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 61% probability that Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 61¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $128k open interest, suggesting the positions are stale and the 56¢ price may not reflect current sentiment.

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61¢
Bid/Ask 60/62¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $13.977·OI $20,682.567·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0x31d40b9ac877e5f0bde9318d16d1a76a45c020aa4e668f12d9c59a5b62f02cf4
7-day price64 snapshots · 3 regime
61¢61¢ current
Apr 1247¢Apr 21

Analysis

6d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $128k open interest, suggesting the positions are stale and the 56¢ price may not reflect current sentiment. The astronomical implied yields (4232% for Yes, 6855% for No) combined with a 655% realized volatility indicate severe mispricing or a broken market mechanism, likely due to the thin 7¢ spread failing to attract arbitrage activity. With only 7 days to expiry and the game occurring in 6 days, this market is approaching resolution but the complete absence of recent trading makes the current price unreliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game between Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC, scheduled for April 22 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Houston Dynamo and San Diego FC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 40373.8%
IY (No) 98771.2%
Adj IY 17779%
CRI 2
RV 110%
VR 0.05
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)40373.8%
IY (No)98771.2%
Adj IY17779%
CRI2
RV110%
VR0.05
IAR0.5/h
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 10:19:18 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:08:23 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x31d40b9ac877e5f0bde9318d16d1a76a45c020aa4e668f12d9c59a5b62f02cf4 yes 100

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