Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1538% and a dramatic 7-day price collapse from 95¢ to 64¢, suggesting significant new information arrived or sentiment shifted sharply downward. The 67% current price conflicts with the extraordinarily high implied yield on "No" (5388%), indicating the market may be mispriced or facing liquidity constraints—the 11¢ spread and modest $1.1M open interest support this concern. With only 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, the outcome likely hinges on Spotify's April 30 rankings, making this a binary event with limited time for mean reversion.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the second greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on April 30, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify.

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