What is the current probability for "Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.5% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

█████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

23¢

Bid/Ask 21/25¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $9,404.019·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

0x3e80f6cc475d7940ce26db5ee997b28ee80c50170ce7aa8af2d104c947c8e5e3

7-day price261 snapshots · 38 regime

50¢23¢ current

Apr 823¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to be President of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Masoud Pezeshkian's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Masoud Pezeshkian and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.5%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 412%

CRI 3

RV 1208%

VR 8.64

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	412%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1208%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	8.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.17	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/29/2026, 9:00:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/29/2026, 8:53:55 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x3e80f6cc475d7940ce26db5ee997b28ee80c50170ce7aa8af2d104c947c8e5e3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions