Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 end of April?

The 68¢ price implies Tesla needs to rally roughly 5.3% from current levels to clear $380 by month-end, yet the extreme 7,498% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging rather than genuine conviction—this asymmetry is unusual for an 11-day window with only $481k in 24h volume. The 724% realized volatility and 1.93 vol ratio indicate TSLA is pricing in outsized moves, though the neutral regime score and modest 2.9 info arrivals per hour don't obviously justify such tail skew. With $2.8M open interest against a wide 21¢ spread, liquidity is thin enough that the current price may not reflect true market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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